Parameters for Analysis

FPA-PM is a strategic analysis. Information provided by the fire planner at the FPU level is for the primary purpose of allowing the FPA-PM system to perform the following process:

Optimally model the deployment of firefighting resources to maximize effectiveness in terms of weighted acres managed within a range of cost constraints.

To accurately determine the effectiveness frontier<<link to explanation of effectiveness frontier>>, the fire planners need to provide the historic funding levels, total cost limit (including the minimum and maximum), and the analysis interval. Once the optimizer uses these parameters to determine the resources needed for an optimal level of performance, this information is then used to develop a budget that reflects the cost of those resources.

Note: During Beta testing, the FPA team discovered that correctly defining these parameters is critical for obtaining meaningful results. As more FPUs run the analysis and validate their results, the FPA team will review the processes and make adjustments as needed. To comment on this process, please email <<link>> the Help Desk with your suggestions, and where possible, provide specific examples.

It is vital that FPU participants work together to gather the best possible data because each participant's budget requests will rely on the quality of the data provided by all of the participants in the FPU to generate the FPA-PM outputs.

Ideal Data Ranges

Within the system, you will need to provide historical data to ensure that the model provides realistic solutions. The following table provides the ideal number of years requested for each data type.If you don't have the full number of years of data recommended, use what you have.

Table 1- Ideal Data Ranges

Data Type	Number of Years
Weather	10
Fire Occurrence	Most Recent 10 years
Land Management Objectives	Current
Historic Funding Levels	Average of past 3 years*
Weighting	Current
Resources Available	Current
Sensitivity Periods	Current

*adjusted for inflation at 3%/year

Key Points

FPA-PM requires the following user-supplied parameters in order to accurately perform the analysis:

Analysis Year

The fiscal year in which an analysis will be used for either budget formulation or allocation. All input costs and value data are automatically inflated to the selected year. Create a separate dataset for each fiscal year that you want to analyze.

Historic Funding Level

The average amount expended over the past 3 years by all agencies incorporated in the FPU. This amount includes only the preparedness budget for initial response; not for the full preparedness activity. Derive this amount from each participant's preparedness costs for the FPU that are related to maintaining fire resources for initial response (which includes both initial attack and approved wildland fire use).

Don't include the costs for fire prevention; "wet" patrols; air or ground detection; fuels management; trainees and developmental positions; Emergency Firefighter (EFF) and Administratively Determined (AD) crews usually used for large fire suppression; national resources; or the costs for large fires and extended attack suppression. These costs will be accounted for in Phase II of the application.

These costs are best estimates, and shouldn't require an in-depth analysis. The purpose here is to establish a point from which you can perform the analysis.

This value is used to derive the minimum and maximum cost constraint levels for the analysis.

Note: If the aggregate historic funding level for all agencies within the FPU averages less than $25,000 for preparedness, then the FPU is considered a "small unit", and does not need to use FPA at this time.

Total Cost Constraint (Initial Response Cost)

Three cost constraints provide the optimization model with cost parameters that control minimum and maximum budget levels for the analysis.

• Minimum: The lowest cost constraint level used for the analysis. It is derived from the Historic Funding Level by applying a 25% reduction below the current level used by Congressional/OMB budgeteers. (You can also look at it as 75% of the current level.)
• Maximum: The highest cost constraint level that the optimization model uses to analyze the resources defined by the FPU team. For national consistency, the maximum is established as 150% of the FPU's Historic Funding Level.
• Analysis Interval: This number is determined by the FPU team and is based on 10 equal cost constraint intervals.

Determining Your Analysis Parameters

Use the following procedure to determine your analysis parameters. Understand that this process is part science and part artful application, and may require some trial and error to get reasonable results:

1. Determine the historic funding level.These costs should be best estimates, and do not require in-depth analysis.
2. Calculate the Initial Response Minimum and Maximum values.

   Minimum = Historic Funding Level X 0.75

   Maximum = Historic Funding Level X 1.50

Note: If you perform the analysis and your curve looks too flat or too steep, try adjusting the minimum and maximum.It's important that these values represent reasonable dollar amounts.

3. Derive the analysis intervals. To start, assume 10 equal intervals of 10% of the difference between the minimum and maximum cost limits.

   Analysis Interval = (Maximum - Minimum)/10

Note: If the minimum level is less than the FPU's least expensive fire resource, then use the cost of that resource as the increment level.

4. Verify your results by performing an analysis using your current FPU resource mix and a set of values that includes your current funding level. You can use this as a baseline to evaluate analysis results from other scenarios.

Note: If your FPU has little or no funding history, compare your results against other units with a similar size and workload history to develop a baseline.

Example

The following units are in your FPU. Determine the historic funding level.

Table 2- Example: Determining Analysis Parameters

Unit Name	Unit Preparedness Budget (3 yr. avg.)
Well-Exposed NF	$640,000
Little Known NP	$50,000
Where Is It District, BLM	$216,000
Shallow Water NWR	$7,000
Local Indian Tribe	$36,000
Pacific Office BIA	$25,000
TOTAL	$974,000

Historic Funding Level = $974,000

OR

Some level above $949,000 (if BIA does not contribute to the FPU)

The answer depends on how much the BIA Regional Office contributes to the FPU. This is why it's critical to understand what your partners are contributing.

The Minimum and Maximum are calculated as follows:

Minimum: $974,000 X 0.75 = $730,500 (round to $700,000)
OR $949,000 X 0.75 = $711,750 (round to $700,000)

Maximum: $974,000 X 1.50 = $1, 461,000 (round to $1,500,000)
OR $949,000 X 1.50 = $1,423,500 (round to $1,400,000)

Cost Increment: $700,000 X 0.10 = $70,000

Related Topics

For more information, see the following topics:

• Rules and Thresholds
• Budget Formulation Process
• Reporting